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Artemis tracks the leading prediction-market (event-contract) venues on the same fundamental framework we use for exchanges and protocols: daily volume, open interest, transactions, active users, fees, and — where the venue is on-chain — TVL. This page documents every prediction market we cover, where the underlying data comes from, and exactly how each metric is calculated. Explore the Prediction Markets sector on Artemis

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What is a prediction market?

A prediction market is an exchange where users trade binary (or multi-outcome) event contracts — “Will X happen by date Y?” — that settle to a fixed value (typically $1) if the event resolves true and $0 otherwise. The traded price between $0 and $1 is read as the market-implied probability of the event. Because contracts are fully collateralized and settle to a known value, prediction markets have their own metric vocabulary (contracts traded, open interest in contracts, settlement value) that we normalize into the standard Artemis fields below.

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Platforms we cover

Drift (drift) also operates a prediction-market (“BET”) product, but is tracked primarily as a Solana perpetuals/spot venue, so its prediction-market activity is folded into its protocol metrics rather than broken out here.
Coverage windows are the first date with data through today; new venues are added as they reach meaningful volume. See the full asset list for canonical IDs.

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Coming soon

We’re adding the following prediction-market venues soon:
  • DKeX — DraftKings’ own CFTC-regulated exchange (formerly Railbird)
FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions retail flow is already captured at the exchange level under CME above. New venues follow the same normalized metric framework and appear alongside the live venues as ingestion completes.

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Where the data comes from

We use two ingestion models depending on whether a venue settles on-chain or off-chain:

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On-chain venues (indexed from the blockchain)

Polymarket, Limitless, Myriad, Rain.one, Opinion, Predict, and Hyperliquid HIP-4 settle on public blockchains. For these we index raw trade/fill events directly from archive nodes and raw block feeds, then aggregate to a daily grain. This is the same event-level pipeline used for DEXes and perps — no reliance on a venue-reported dashboard number.
  • Polymarket — indexed from Polygon. Every fill is a USDC-denominated on-chain event; the raw trade table (fact_polymarket_trades) feeds the daily model. Because Polymarket settles via UMA’s optimistic oracle, we also track UMA dispute counts and unique disputers, plus maker rebates paid on Polygon.
  • Hyperliquid HIP-4 — indexed from Hyperliquid’s raw node feed. Outcome markets are fully collateralized; each binary share settles to $1, so notional volume is measured in shares.

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Off-chain / centralized venues (venue data feed)

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange whose contracts do not settle on-chain, so we ingest from Kalshi’s official API market snapshots and trade feed (fact_kalshi_trades). Kalshi’s event contracts are $1-face binaries, so contract counts equal USD notional. Kalshi also lists perpetual futures, reported separately in USD-native perp_* fields. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers’ CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (a DCM and DCO — it both lists and clears its own contracts), with published EOD history from 2024-08-01. We ingest ForecastEx’s end-of-day prices file (per-contract, per-side volume and open interest). Each ForecastEx contract lists a YES and a NO (and, for elections, multiple) subtype row carrying the same pair-level figures, so we take the MAX across a contract’s subtype rows before summing across contracts — a double-count-safe aggregation. On the $1 cents-model each contract’s face is $1, so the contract count is the USD figure. Gemini Predictions is the prediction-markets venue run by Gemini Titan, LLC (Gemini’s CFTC-regulated DCM), live since its 2025-12-15 launch. The headline volume is Gemini’s own official CFTC Rule 16.01 per-contract Market Data publication; we also carry a complete-print secondary figure (tick_contracts_traded) built from the venue’s tick-by-tick Trade Data file. Gemini does not report open interest — its file’s OI column has been zero since launch — so open_interest is carried as an explicit NULL. CME lists CFTC-regulated binary yes/no event contracts on CME/CBOT/NYMEX/COMEX, distributed retail through FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions (both are FCM front-ends onto CME — the exchange-level figures here are the only published record, with no per-distributor split). We ingest CME’s official daily volume + open-interest file (public FTP), filtered to event-contract products, with history from CME’s 2022-09-19 event-contract launch. Coverage note: the financial event contracts (equity indices, energy, metals, FX, crypto) are captured; the sports/culture contracts — the bulk of volume since the Dec-2025 FanDuel Predicts launch — are published only in CME’s Daily Bulletin Section 73 PDF and are a known coverage gap. Contract faces are not uniform ($1 in the FanDuel era, $20 for the 2022-era products), so spot_volume is a contract count, not USD. Nadex (North American Derivatives Exchange, operating as Crypto.com | Derivatives North America since the 2021 acquisition) is a CFTC-regulated event-contract DCM. We ingest the exchange’s Daily Bulletin PDF (its CFTC Part 16 disclosure — per-contract daily volume, open interest, and settlement detail), aggregated twin-safe: a contract can appear twice per day (a trading-side and a settlement-side row), so we sum volume but take MAX open interest before summing across contracts. Coverage starts 2025-06-01 (the ingest backfill floor; bulletins exist back to 2019). Nadex contract faces vary ($10–$2,000 by product family), so spot_volume is a contract count with no uniform USD conversion; parlay (“combo”) flow is broken out in combo_volume. Rothera is a 24×7 event-contract venue that launched on 2026-05-21. We ingest Rothera’s end-of-day (EOD) market feed — per-contract volume and open interest snapshotted daily. Because the EOD feed carries no per-trade VWAP, the price-weighted volume_usd/open_interest_usd fields are valued at the contract settlement price, an approximation rather than a fill-level tally.

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How we calculate each metric

All venues are normalized onto the standard Artemis metric fields so they can be compared side-by-side. Not every venue exposes every metric; the table notes where a field is venue-specific.

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Category & sub-category breakdowns

For the largest venues we split daily volume and open interest into a cross-venue-comparable taxonomy (Sports, Politics, Economics, Crypto, …) so the same categories line up across platforms:
  • Polymarket and Kalshi expose SPOT_VOLUME_SPORTS, SPOT_VOLUME_POLITICS, SPOT_VOLUME_CRYPTO, and ..._WITHOUT_SPORTS variants, plus per-category tables (*_metrics_by_category) and hourly tables (*_metrics_by_hour).
  • Rothera has no category field in its EOD feed, so category is derived from each contract’s product-code prefix (via an internal mapping) into the same cross-venue taxonomy. Rothera additionally offers a sport-level drilldown (Soccer / Baseball / Tennis / American Football / Macro) that is intentionally not cross-venue-comparable.
Reading volume across venues. On the $1-face binary venues, spot_volume is a contract/share count that already equals USD notional, so the headline numbers are directly comparable across Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx, Gemini, Rothera, and HIP-4 without conversion. Keep in mind:
  • spot_volume is notional, not premium. The price-weighted cash actually traded (≈ half of notional at typical prices) is the separate volume_usd field where a venue exposes it (Rothera, ForecastEx). Don’t mix the two.
  • Nadex and CME are not $1-face. Their contract faces vary by product family, so their spot_volume is a raw contract count that does not equal USD and should not be compared 1:1 with the $1-face venues. On CME, note the sports/culture coverage gap; on Nadex, parlay flow (combo_volume) is a large share of the total.
  • Gemini publishes two figures: the headline spot_volume (official Rule 16.01 Market Data) and tick_contracts_traded from the tick-by-tick file. The tick figure includes intraday 5/15-minute crypto contracts and repeated combo/cross prints that Gemini’s own displayed volume excludes, so it runs a multiple of the headline — use spot_volume for cross-venue comparison.
  • Perpetual futures on Kalshi and Polymarket are USD-native (not $1-face) and live in separate perp_* fields — never sum them with event-contract spot_volume.

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Accessing the data

Prediction-market metrics are available through every Artemis surface:
  • Web app — Prediction Markets sector on artemis.ai
  • API / Python SDK — see Prediction Markets via the API for fetch_metrics examples
  • Sheets — pull the fields above directly into Google Sheets or Excel
  • Snowflake Data Share — daily models live under RESULTS.EZ_METRICS.ez_<venue>_metrics, with breakdowns under RESULTS.EZ_METRICS_BY_DIMENSION

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More information